You can see what's happening. The industrials want to go for a run. The techs want to go for a run. They can do it if China improves, and many people are saying that China has improved.
I am waiting for the Baltic Freight index to budge. It hasn't. But you know what has? Nordic American Tanker (NAT). I think that's a pretty good proxy for Chinese commerce. Sure, it is oil, not bulk freight. But it's been marching higher over time.
I know that it is dicey to come in and buy the industrials on the eve of their reporting. I know, for example, that we have seen a bunch of ugly numbers from a host of global companies. I haven't liked the numbers that have been coming from Emerson (EMR). People are still licking their wounds from Caterpillar (CAT).
But the good news is that all of the industrials were brought low by the negative commentary from these companies. You should also note that Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) went up, despite downgrades. That shows pent-up demand for these stocks. Honeywell (HON) and 3M (MMM) are making big moves. Again, lots of overhead resistance, but they are going higher.
Lots of those runs are because of the Trian investment in GE (GE) and the recognition that GE is classically undervalued. Plus, Nelson Peltz -- if you read his package on GE, he wants GE to make smart industrial acquisitions as well as buy back stock. The company has the balance sheet to do both.
It's a virtuous circle.
It shouldn't be lost on people that housing has caught a bid, too. That's, again, because interest rates are staying low because the Fed knew better.
I want the people who insist that a rate hike will help the economy and the people who insist that wages are going up too quickly so we need to hike to come forward and say how sanguine they are about the economy. I want them to say it. I want them to come out and repeat their views. Today. Right now.
Why?
Because I know that they will never change them, and it is a reminder that they had the same views after every weak number because they are dogmatists who don't want to hear the facts.
I am not OK with that. Are you?
Oh, and let's be sure of something: I love Carl Icahn. He's the real deal. But his sell call got a lot of people buying puts and betting against the market. Oops!
