Market Surge Is Getting Ridiculous

 | Oct 04, 2017 | 6:00 AM EDT
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I have seen many folks complaining that they can't remember the last time we had a down day in the market. Let me remind you, it was just over a week ago, on Sept. 25, when all the major indexes closed in the red.

And let me point out that the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) has taken over from the small-caps. Remember when small-caps were stagnant for months? Well, the QQQs are essentially the same price they were in July and only three points (2%) higher than they were in early June. That's four months of nothing. So it's not as though the entire market is having a party.

But yes, the market should pull back. And yes, it is getting ridiculous, especially when the movement is so grinding. But breadth remains strong, the transports are within striking distance of a big, round number of 10,000, the semis and banks have slowed their up moves but they are still pushing higher. And the number of stocks making new highs continues to expand.

There were two minor changes in Tuesday's market. The small-caps did not lead, which is a minor change. As a reminder, the ratio of the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) to QQQ has resistance overhead, so this will be a test for it.

Two days ago, I reviewed the VIX in relation to small-caps. Last week, I noted that in the past when this ratio has turned down from this resistance area, the VIX has moved up. This brings me to the other minor change in Tuesday's market. The VIX was green - barely, but green it was.

Why is this a change? Because in the last three-plus weeks it is only the third time the VIX was green; the two other times were on days when the indexes were down. The change is that the indexes were all up with the VIX green.

We already know how sentiment is giddy. The Fear and Green Index is at 92, so we know that's stretched. We discussed that the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) for the S&P 500 yesterday was 83; as of Tuesday evening it was at 86. And the put/call ratio was 72% on Tuesday. As a reminder, under 70% is bearish. The put/call ratio for ETFs was 78%. This marks the third time in a week that it has chimed in under 100%, so it is getting quite extreme as well.

It's as though no one fears the employment number on Friday because by now I'm sure you realize that whatever it is, it will be filled with hurricane excuses. If it's too hot, we'll hear, "Wait until next month when the hurricane effect shows up." If it's too cool, we'll hear that it was because of the hurricanes.

In the meantime, bonds haven't budged in a week. TLT is just hanging out in the $124-$125 area.

For more market analysis from Helene Meisler, sign up for Top Stocks, published five times a week. 

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