It's such a ridiculous market. Think about what happened going into the weekend. We had a lot of stock for sale per an option expiration. We know the week after the option expiration has historically been a terrible time to buy, down 20 out of 25. The dollar gave up a lot of its gains because the Europeans said that they would continue quantitative easing, which is code for "we are going to debase our currency again."
Yet interest rates were stable-to-lower and oil was down. Now, we know that somehow, the latter has been a thorn in this market's side for a very long time -- even as we know that lower energy prices are a net positive.
But Friday's sell-off -- the hideous, relentless sell-off -- wasn't warranted in retrospect. Nevertheless, because the coverage of the Fed took its cue from the stock market, there was an almost overwhelming sense that what the Fed did simply didn't help.
I came back and said we have no idea how badly Main Street would have taken a Fed hike. Or how China, which was up again last night, would have taken a rate hike. Or how the Brazilian real would have taken a rate hike (even though one of your biggest worries there should be Petrobras, where the longer-term bonds have lost about a quarter of their value since May).
So what happens today? We get the polar opposite of Friday and stocks just percolate up.
However, the pattern is that they never percolate enough to make up for the decline the previous session, which means you have to buy the bottom and then flip into this move. It's not "buy the dip and sell the rip." It's "buy when it's ugliest and then flip the moment you get any upward movement because you should expect that the market will fall again rather rapidly."
That's the definition of a bear market: one where prices take a stair-step down -- the exact opposite of what defines a bull market.
Hence, I don't trust it, I don't believe in it and I just wish we would go where we have to go and stop delaying the darned inevitable.