It's Buyer Beware on Ubiquiti Networks

 | Sep 19, 2017 | 3:52 PM EDT
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Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) got in the cross-hairs of Citron Research's Andrew Left, a noted short-seller, yesterday when he claimed the network technology company was a "fraud."

The chart of UBNT is really different from 99.9% of the charts I have looked at over the past 53 years. Let me show you.

In this daily chart of UBNT, above, we have a lot of unique technical signals going on in just 12 months. There is a rally from last September to early February and volume is nearly nonexistent. This rising-wedge-like rally ends abruptly with a gap to the downside. The wedge pattern starts at $48 and prices quickly retrace the entire rally and a bit more. Prices then go sideways for about five months, also on no volume to mention. In early August, prices gap higher and briefly make new highs. These gains are fleeting and prices have dived lower to touch $48 (again) from $66 a few weeks ago.

The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line generally moves lower form February, signaling more aggressive selling for many months. Even though prices have not broken to a new price low, the OBV line is clearly at a new low. In the lower panel, we do not find a bullish divergence from the momentum study, so no leading indicator to the rescue.

This weekly chart of UBNT, above, gives me the impression we are looking at a large double-top formation. A close below the trough of the pattern around $46 could open the way for a decline to $30. Prices look like they will end the week below the 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line has turned down from its own double-top and the weekly MACD oscillator has crossed to the downside for a take-profits sell signal.

In this Point and Figure chart of UBNT, above, we see a downside price target of $30, which matches up with the bar chart double-top pattern price target. A trade at $45 on this chart will be a new low for the move down and could precipitate the decline.

Bottom line: I have no idea what Left has found in the footnotes, but the chart of UBNT looks very vulnerable to further declines. Buyer beware!

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