It's $68? Grab some.
That's my first thought about Alibaba. No greed here. This darned thing's range did almost nothing. It barely moved up. And they didn't bump the size of the deal. They must have this stock so planted with people who only want to buy more -- and not flip -- that if people don't get too excited, this could work out well, in that ALibaba gets the right amount and the buyers get the right amount, although CEO Jack Ma has said over and over again that the shareholders do not matter as much as the customers.
Now, when I heard it, I also said to myself that it could open in the high $80s, as people with half allocations who are not flippers come in with a smooth blend of, say, $78. That is well below the price-to-earnings multiple of Facebook (FB) and is much cheaper than all but Baidu (BIDU) when it comes to growth characteristics.
I am sure it will be a zoo but this deal smells a lot more like the well-orchestrated Twitter (TWTR) initial public offering (IPO) than the ruckus that was Facebook. My only concern? That there are not enough flippers who actually got stock. In that case, the owners will just be bidding against each other to get more in and end up overpaying, because the public will come in with undisciplined market orders.
But all in all, so far, so good. We are seeing no reckless increase in the number of shares and no multiple price bumps after each roadshow. There are no whispers that the quarter might have had some softness. We have seen all of those in our time, particularly in the Facebook fiasco where the dealers lost control of everything.
So far, so good.
Random musings: Congrats to those who weren't faked out by all the chatter that there would be no deal for Concur (CNQR). I had some catcalling on that one, but it was worth it. And no, I am not concerned about Ellison stepping down as CEO of Oracle (ORCL). He had, de facto, stepped down. See our Action Alerts PLUS note about the conference call.