I can make a bullish case in Vipshop (VIPS) against the Sept. 16 low with the following information: there was a Fibonacci price cluster of support at the $187.38-$190.41 area. This cluster included the coincidence of a 100% projection of a prior decline, two 1.272 extensions and a 0.382 and 0.786 retracement of prior swings. Besides the cluster of price relationships, there was also a confluence of Fibonacci time relationships when that last low was made.
There were four cycles, are illustrated on the daily chart below, which came in the Sept. 16 ¿ Sept. 17 period. If this is a more important low, then my typical target for a rally in this one simply comes from running the 1.272 extension of the swing into the support zone. In other words, the Aug. 13 high to the Sept. 16 low, and that gives us a first target at the $240.44 area. The second target would be the 1.618 extension of this same swing, at $254.36.
This trade setup has already triggered and has already rallied into a fairly healthy hurdle on the way up. Even though it can continue higher, if you want to have a bit more of an edge, you will want to wait for a bit of a pullback to that Sept. 16 low before considering an entry. The hurdles that stand in the way of VIPS making those lofty targets come in at $208.17-$209.37 and $212.42-$214.12.
The most important elements of that resistance come from the 100% projections of the prior rally swings. (For example, I measured 100% of the Aug. 29 low to the Sept. 9 high, which was $23.17, and projected that from the Sept. 16 low. That gives us part of the important resistance decision we need to clear at $212.42.)
Bottom line, I like Vipshop against the Sept. 16 low and would look at pullbacks for entries on the buy side. If price can push through the hurdles we are currently up against, the odds increase for a continued rally towards those key upside targets. I consider myself wrong the trade if the Sept. 16 low is taken out.