In early August we looked at the charts and indicators of Qorvo (QRVO) , and we did not trust the bounce. The piece concluded "because of the sub-par bounce in July, I would look for a retest of the July low and a retest and potential break of the rising 200-day moving average line. A close below $64 could open the way for a deeper decline to $56 or so." With hindsight we can see that prices ignored my forecast and worked higher from $68 to the $74 area.
We were wrong, but the technical picture has not really improved the past five weeks even as prices have risen. I don't plan to make excuses about my conclusions as all the brokers, financial advisers, retail and institution clients I have dealt with over the past 45 years never wanted hear some BS about your forecast. Honesty is the best policy. That trade idea did not work but don't stop listening to my ideas.
In this updated daily bar chart of QRVO, below, we can see that prices are now above the rising 50-day moving average line. The 200-day line was bullish in August and it still is bullish. Volume has been light to diminishing since early August and the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line is not showing any aggressive buying. The momentum study is showing that the pace of the advance since late July has been slowing. At the end of the day prices still went up.
In this weekly bar chart of QRVO, below, we can see that prices are still above the rising 40-week moving average line. In the middle panel is the weekly OBV line which like the daily line is not showing a bias to the upside. No evidence of aggressive buying here. In the bottom panel of this chart is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator which started to narrow to a possible bullish crossover but it has yet to happen.
In this Point and Figure chart, below, we can see that prices have been creeping higher and have met a price target. Can prices go higher? Sure. Can prices reverse and go lower? Maybe if we decline to $70.85.
Bottom line -- I was not impressed with the technical condition of the charts last month and they have not improved much. Prices did not decline but yet they have not rallied convincingly.