• Subscribe
  • Log In
  • Home
  • Daily Diary
  • Asset Class
    • U.S. Equity
    • Fixed Income
    • Global Equity
    • Commodities
    • Currencies
  • Sector
    • Basic Materials
    • Consumer Discretionary
    • Consumer Staples
    • Energy
    • Financial Services
    • Healthcare
    • Industrials
    • Real Estate
    • Technology
    • Telecom Services
    • Transportation
    • Utilities
  • Latest
    • Articles
    • Video
    • Columnist Conversations
    • Best Ideas
    • Stock of the Day
  • Street Notes
  • Authors
    • Bruce Kamich
    • Doug Kass
    • Jim "Rev Shark" DePorre
    • Helene Meisler
    • Jonathan Heller
    • - See All -
  • Options
  • RMPIA
  • Switch Product
    • Action Alerts PLUS
    • Quant Ratings
    • Real Money
    • Real Money Pro
    • Retirement
    • Stocks Under $10
    • TheStreet
    • Top Stocks
    • Trifecta Stocks
  1. Home
  2. / Investing
  3. / Consumer Discretionary

Cramer: We Need to Be Able to Predict a Clear Election Winner

Without it, the uncertainty would be incredible between now and November.
By JIM CRAMER Sep 13, 2016 | 07:05 AM EDT
Stocks quotes in this article: MYL, TEVA, VRX, WFC, AAPL, CMI, CAT, KO, PEP, KMB, CL, PG, SBUX, BA, UTX, TSLA, SCTY

The gulf's too great between candidates for you not to have a view of the winner, but we are too far from the election to have that view.

That was the pretty stunning conclusion of a panel I went to last night hosted by ETrade and TheStreet.com. To listen to the lack of common ground and to recognize the pure uncertainty of a Trump presidency is to understand that you can't really game him at all, except to sell anything that's related to commodities because of what would be an obvious trade war with China.

But if you think Clinton's going to win you have not one, but two variables. A simple victory means the coming pain of owning health care, because it's pretty clear that she would take her cue from the Big Three that are increasingly being acknowledge as the ne'erdowells: Mylan (MYL) , Teva (TEVA) and Valeant (VRX) , and establish as close to price controls on drug increases as possible.

Why these three? Because they are widely conceded to do both the most price increases and the least research and development. But the scrutiny would extend to the companies that do the research and development and the least price increases -- pretty much everyone else in the industry.

You would have to expect that she would raise capital gains taxes. It's already been in the cards. Another strike against the individual investor who's been fleeing anyway.

Worse, on a landslide, then Elisabeth Warren would be the most important finance person in this country and even though Hillary Clinton has accepted a huge amount of money from banks you can only imagine what kind of hell Warren could raise. Do you not think she would run a bank oversight committee that would call, for example, a moratorium on bank cross-selling because of the egregious wrongdoing at Wells Fargo (WFC) ?

How about Trump? Here's a man who wants a trade war, is literally courting a trade war with China. We forget how much commerce we do with China. They have a ton of companies that make phones in China. Ban Apple (AAPL) . They need capital equipment to mine and build roads and infrastructure: Ban Cummins (CMI) and Caterpillar (CAT) .

We sell a gigantic amount of all consumer packaged goods to China: ban Coca Cola (KO) , Pepsico (PEP) , Kimberly-Clark (KMB) , Colgate (CL) , Procter & Gamble (PG) . We have two big restaurant chains: Starbucks (SBUX) and KFC. Say goodbye to that revenue.

Does anyone think that our rails won't be affected? So much of our coal goes to China, and it's been part of a major turning point for the group. The airlines and the aircraft builders and all of their contractors would be crushed. So much for Boeing (BA) and United Technologies (UTX) , which has the added disadvantage of making and serving Otis elevators. Do you think the Communist Party cares about this stuff? You bet they do.

So many of our industrials would be impacted by this trade war.

But you can't necessarily hide in the domestic companies because, let's face it, the nationwide minimum wage would go up with Hillary for certain.

Then there are the corporate subsidies for clean energy. Tesla (TSLA) and SolarCity (SCTY) combined would be a Hillary special. I don't know how they could get the capital under Trump.

The only real common grounds discussed: defense gets more money, to which I say so what, those stocks have all been ridiculously elevated. And the Fed might be on hold before the election, something I am not even sure about.

Suffice it to say unless you get a clear winner going into November, the uncertainty would be incredible and as the panelists all agreed last night, uncertainty is the one thing we know above all that investors hate.

So keep in mind, when you see the volatility, that not all of it is the Fed -- where the panelists called for Fed head trading cards so we know where people stand and what their numbers are, they have become that important. A lot of it is the election and the lack of common ground, which could make for a treacherous couple of months until we get there.

Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long WFC, AAPL, PEP, SBUX.

TAGS: Investing | U.S. Equity | Regulation | Markets | Financial Services | Healthcare | Consumer Discretionary | Consumer Staples | Energy | Industrials | Technology | Transportation | China | Consumer | Economy | Politics | How-to | Risk Management | Stocks

More from Consumer Discretionary

Apple's Price Charts Are Getting Badly Bruised

Bruce Kamich
May 12, 2022 1:10 PM EDT

Here's what the odds favor.

RH and Its Charts Don't Have That Homey Feeling Right Now

Bruce Kamich
May 12, 2022 8:32 AM EDT

The technical signals of the home furnishings provider indicate more downside to come in its stock.

Crocs Is Still Slipping to the Downside on Its Charts

Bruce Kamich
May 11, 2022 7:44 AM EDT

The footwear maker isn't seeing a lot of technical support at this point.

Screening for Deep-Value Stocks Turns Up a Pair of Possibilities

Jonathan Heller
May 9, 2022 10:00 AM EDT

A producer of small appliances and a maker of fishing, camping and kayaking gear pop up as possible value plays.

Bearish Bets: 3 Slumping Stocks You Should Consider Shorting This Week

Bob Lang
May 8, 2022 10:30 AM EDT

These recently downgraded names are displaying both quantitative and technical deterioration.

Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation. If you have questions, please contact us here.

Email

CANCEL
SUBMIT

Email sent

Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.

DONE

Oops!

We're sorry. There was a problem trying to send your email to .
Please contact customer support to let us know.

DONE

Please Join or Log In to Email Our Authors.

Email Real Money's Wall Street Pros for further analysis and insight

Already a Subscriber? Login

Columnist Conversation

  • 02:24 PM EDT PAUL PRICE

    An Interesting Chart

    I'm betting heavily that stocks will be way up aga...
  • 10:10 AM EDT JAMES "REV SHARK" DEPORRE

    This Weekend on Real Money

    "Market Timing for Dummies"
  • 01:44 PM EDT STEPHEN GUILFOYLE

    Stocks Under $10 Portfolio

    We're making a series of trades here.
  • See More

COLUMNIST TWEETS

  • A Twitter List by realmoney
About Privacy Terms of Use

© 1996-2022 TheStreet, Inc., 225 Liberty Street, 27th Floor, New York, NY 10281

Need Help? Contact Customer Service

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data & Company fundamental data provided by FactSet. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions Group.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

FactSet calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.

Compare Brokers

Please Join or Log In to manage and receive alerts.

Follow Real Money's Wall Street Pros to receive real-time investing alerts

Already a Subscriber? Login