L Brands (LB) made a recovery rally the past three months but that looks to be over.
In our July 26 update on Real Money we said, "Aggressive traders could trade LB from the long side for now, but a decline below $70 will weaken the chart pattern and move us to the sidelines." We also noted, "The chart resistance on approach to $80 can be seen on this weekly chart"
Let's see how our forecast worked out and what we recommend now.
In this updated daily of LB, above, we can see that the rally came very close to the $80 resistance level (see the paragraph above) and turned down. Prices have retreated to the rising 50-day moving average line. Prices are below the declining 200-day line.
The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been gently declining from mid-August and suggests that sellers have been more aggressive than buyers with heavier volume traded on down days for LB. Momentum is not diverging from the price action so no help from this leading indicator.
In this three-year chart of LB, above, we can see how the recovery rally stopped short of the underside of the declining 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line looks like it has peaked and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is below the zero line and looks to be narrowing toward a new sell signal.
It would not surprise me to see LB decline back into the $70-$65 area in the weeks ahead.
