I don't disagree with the Pacific Crest call this morning that you should take some profits in Apple (AAPL) ahead of next week's event.
The call is certainly doing some damage to Apple shares today, down more than 4%, as well as to derivative Apple plays like GT Advanced (GTAT), which is down more than 5%.
Basically, the call is based on the premise that Apple's stock has already been going like gangbusters since it surprised everyone with a good April earnings report.
PacCrest is right. Apple is up 31% since that positive report. That's a monster move for a stock this size.
Will the party continue after the event next week? That's unlikely, in my view. Typically, Apple ramps up into a big even and then immediately sells off.
For the next two weeks after the event, we're likely to hear a lot about if Apple had an initially disappointing sales weekend or not. We will also hear about why the new iWatch is or is not likely to be a big disappointment. With a new product like an iWatch, we really won't be able to judge its acceptance by consumers for another six months.
So, I do think some caution on Apple is warranted at these levels.
With GT Advanced, on the other hand, the shares could bounce up a lot if they are included in the new product announcements coming on Tuesday. If sapphire is in both the iPhones and the iWatch, GT's stock could rocket higher.
On the flipside, its shares could really sell off if they are only a small part of, say, the new iWatch.
The bottom line is that this report from PacCrest is a good wake-up call to the Apple bulls that this rally is long in the tooth going into its fifth month.
It's time to ring the register for now on Apple.