Look at your screen. This is what it looks like when the Fed raises rates into a worldwide slowdown. This is what it looks like when the Fed tightens as U.S. manufacturing expands at the slowest pace in two years. You are seeing the results of what happens when the Fed ignores China, thinks things are sanguine and says pound sand to Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, who actually knows a thing or two about the world's economies.
I understand there is no good time to raise rates. I understand that this is a bad time to raise rates. But there are enough people at the Fed who look at employment and car sales and say "we have done our job, let's just get it over with."
Getting it over with is not something that I regard as a rigorous reason to do something.
I know I am out of step with all of these people who come on air and say "it is time to raise because things are fabulous."
I am out of step with those who think that the slowdown in China and the collapse of Brazil don't matter.
But what am I really saying? How about that the Fed's work in slowing the economy down is being done by the world's economies, and they don't have to make it so bad that it impacts here.
It isn't like our government is creating more jobs or is ready for any sort of slowdown. The election's mostly about social issues anyway, and the president is all about getting our pals in Iran back online.
People are so worried that the Fed is being complacent. Money managers with gigantic bets against the economy (who don't tell you that) are out there, saying that the Fed is a bunch of wusses scared of their shadows.
I don't know, I think that the idea that there could be a worldwide recession is a tad worrisome, and the complacent ones are people like the soon-to-be-in the-majority Fed Reserve President Bullard, who think "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead with the rate hikes," because he is sanguine about things.
For heaven's sake, he and his ideological tone-deaf twin Dennis Lockhart of the Fed Reserve bank of Atlanta were sanguine the whole time the economy was enduring a total battering. They are so complacent about tightening that I bet they think, in their heart of hearts, that the foolish central banker Trichet was dead right to hike twice, just because that's the disciplined thing to do.
What is the cost of waiting? The Manhattan real estate turns too hot? Go listen to the Toll Brothers (TOL) call, it might be cooling already. That we get back to the housing starts we had before the great recession? There is something I am fretting about. That chicken prices are too high? They don't even control that.
Someone tell me, what they are fretting about, please? Otherwise, let's just say that tightening in an obvious bear market like we have leaves me a little cold.
How about you?