I am not in the camp that couldn't care less about the Fed.
I am in the camp that has seen something akin to the downside and it wasn't as horrible as I thought it would be.
I am using the analogue of 2011 when the government bonds of Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal all looked like they could default and we imported that pain for a 19% decline in our averages.
I don't think a slowdown in China with a stock market settling into a level where only the brain-dead and the government seem to remain is as bad as taking out a continent of 770 million people, even as China's got 400 million more people.
China has something that Europe didn't have back then: cash. It has a better balance sheet than Europe ever had, even Germany. It can repatriate maybe as much as $2 trillion in overseas assets with the flick of a pen. They would be snapped up easily. Ironically, do you remember when we always heard that the Chinese owned us with that $1.4 trillion in U.S. debt, and rates would fly if they tried to get out of them?
I think they can sell their bonds virtually in line with the market, maybe a little bit lower, and it will mean nothing except that they can get their economy back on track with the proceeds.
Now, I am not so foolish as to suggest that our dollar won't spike and many foreign currencies could ripple negatively. The Fed knows the dollar will severely impact manufacturing in this country and hurt our exporters' earnings. However, I have to tell you the stocks of these exporters are reflecting from pretty big estimate cuts. The industrials sell at levels that indicate a recession's on the horizon -- have you seen the steels? That's far different than as recently as six months ago.
So I am not in "bring it on" mode. I am in the "relevant stocks have been crushed already" mode. You will just be crushing them back to where they were last Tuesday, maybe a few percent lower.
That I can handle.
I guess what I am saying is that I have seen the future of these industrials and the future is now give or take 5% and I am ready to surrender to it if need be.