• Subscribe
  • Log In
  • Home
  • Daily Diary
  • Asset Class
    • U.S. Equity
    • Fixed Income
    • Global Equity
    • Commodities
    • Currencies
  • Sector
    • Basic Materials
    • Consumer Discretionary
    • Consumer Staples
    • Energy
    • Financial Services
    • Healthcare
    • Industrials
    • Real Estate
    • Technology
    • Telecom Services
    • Transportation
    • Utilities
  • Latest
    • Articles
    • Video
    • Columnist Conversations
    • Best Ideas
    • Stock of the Day
  • Street Notes
  • Authors
    • Doug Kass
    • Bruce Kamich
    • Jim Cramer
    • Jim "Rev Shark" DePorre
    • Helene Meisler
    • Jonathan Heller
    • - See All -
  • Options
  • RMPIA
  • Switch Product
    • Action Alerts PLUS
    • Quant Ratings
    • Real Money
    • Real Money Pro
    • Retirement
    • Stocks Under $10
    • TheStreet
    • Top Stocks
    • Trifecta Stocks
  1. Home
  2. / Investing

Fossil May Need a Lot More Than a Fresh Battery

Trends can, and do persist.
By BRUCE KAMICH
Aug 16, 2017 | 09:31 AM EDT
Stocks quotes in this article: FOSL

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) has been in a multi-year downtrend. Prices were wound up to around $135 just four years ago. They have broken their 2009 nadir and are down near $8 now. Trends can, and do persist.

Can the stock recover or is this too broken to repair? Let's review the latest charts and indicators - the clock is ticking.

In this updated daily bar chart of FOSL, above, we can see the latest installment of its long decline. There is a quick price surge in November, but it is not long sustained and the downtrend resumed. By March, FOSL was making new lows for the move down.

The road lower has been punctuated by gaps to the downside in February, May and even this month. Prices are below the declining 50-day and 200-day moving average lines. The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been declining the past 12 months, telling us that even at these price levels sellers of FOSL are more aggressive.

There was a small bullish divergence in May and June between the momentum study and the weak price action, but prices only recovered slightly in July. A larger divergence is probably going to be needed to encourage buyers.

This three-year weekly bar chart of FOSL, above, shows most of the decline for the shares of this accessory company. Prices have spent the vast majority of their time below the declining 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line has been bearish and the moving average convergence divergence MACD oscillator has spent nearly all its time below the zero line.

In this Point and Figure chart of FOSL, above, we can see a small part of the long decline. There is a downside price target near $5.00. The potential price target is not the point, but rather that there is no sign of accumulation or a base that is visible on this chart.

Bottom line: I have said this before, a bottom is not a point in time but rather a process. Has the low been seen? Maybe, but I doubt it. Can FOSL go lower to $5 -- it is possible. What needs to happen? Prices need to stabilize and investors need to accumulate shares which should show up in the performance of the OBV line.

Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.

Employees of TheStreet are restricted from trading individual securities.

TAGS: Investing | U.S. Equity | Markets | How-to | Risk Management | Stocks

More from Investing

S&P Loses Some Shine on Coinbase IPO

James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Apr 14, 2021 4:23 PM EDT

The initial public offering turned out to be a bit of a dud, but that may be what the market needs.

Amgen Looks Ready for an Upside Breakout

Bruce Kamich
Apr 14, 2021 2:45 PM EDT

Traders could go long at current levels risking below $240 for now.

Coinbase's Market Cap Is Too Huge for Competitors to Ignore It Any Longer

Timothy Collins
Apr 14, 2021 2:23 PM EDT

Yes, COIN is only one company, one stock, but it's a mountain of emotion right now.

Here's How I'd Treat Regeneron

Bruce Kamich
Apr 14, 2021 2:10 PM EDT

It looks like it's time to go long Regeneron, as the charts have improved.

3 Names I'm Adding Today

James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Apr 14, 2021 1:34 PM EDT

Small-caps look like they may be near the end of a two-month-long correction.

Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation. If you have questions, please contact us here.

Email

CANCEL
SUBMIT

Email sent

Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.

DONE

Oops!

We're sorry. There was a problem trying to send your email to .
Please contact customer support to let us know.

DONE

Please Join or Log In to Email Our Authors.

Email Real Money's Wall Street Pros for further analysis and insight

Already a Subscriber? Login

Columnist Conversation

  • 02:42 PM EDT PAUL PRICE

    Wednesday on Real Money Pro

    Make this stock a 'part' of your portfolio.
  • 04:44 PM EDT PAUL PRICE

    Pretty Incredible + Hard to Believe

  • 11:18 AM EDT JAMES "REV SHARK" DEPORRE

    This Weekend on Real Money

    The 5 Pillars of Exceptional Trading
  • See More

COLUMNIST TWEETS

  • A Twitter List by realmoney
About Privacy Terms of Use

© 1996-2021 TheStreet, Inc., 225 Liberty Street, 27th Floor, New York, NY 10281

Need Help? Contact Customer Service

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data & Company fundamental data provided by FactSet. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions Group.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

FactSet calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.

Compare Brokers

Please Join or Log In to manage and receive alerts.

Follow Real Money's Wall Street Pros to receive real-time investing alerts

Already a Subscriber? Login