These moves are really getting compressed now. This most recent selloff that began Thursday didn't even last the requisite three days. Remember the sequence: day one they shoot the hot ones hard and sell everything else along with it. We sure had that.
Then, usually, some big-time guru comes out and says "this is the real deal" when the futures start cascading, and that guru says that the bull market at last is dead and stakes his reputation on it. We had that, too. No need for names.
Day two, they start making a stand on the easier ones -- the higher yielding stocks, consumer packaged goods, you know, the stocks that do OK during a recession. But that's all that is supposed to go up. Everything else is supposed to be down.
Not this time. Instead we had an up day, a soft rally, still remarkable given that we were supposed to be going into a possible nuclear weekend. More important, Nvidia (NVDA) , the Action Alerts PLUS charity portfolio semiconductor holding that is supposed to be "the key" to this market, didn't cause any damage away from Nvidia when it allegedly disappointed. In fact, many of its fellow travelers in tech-land went up, not down. That's highly unusual, and much more bullish than is typical.
The gurus were silent.
On the third day -- this was Monday -- you usually get a retest of the hottest stocks back to their lowest level of the last two days before a late afternoon upward surge. Instead, you got strength from the get go, led by none other than Nvidia.
To me this shows you that there is simply no conviction about the downside, even as there are plenty of stocks that, when you looked at the charts this weekend, were simply awful and should have broken down.
When I pored over the charts Sunday night, I was tempted to write something here about how singularly bad they all looked. But then I started thinking, every time I have written that piece it has turned out to be the bottom. So, I decided the heck with it, I am not doing that this time. Let's just see what happens.
Put it this way: I had no idea it all could turn this quickly. It makes me a tad suspicious about how long it can last. Surely there have to be some analyst out there somewhere in tech land who says "enough FANG and FANG-like stock cheering, I have to get off this before all goes bad."
If we don't get a big downgrade or two on tech today, then it could be some clear sailing as the dramatic move back in Nvidia tells you don't be so quick to sell.
The key thing, though, is that we compressed time, and in retrospect we had a three day selloff turn into a one day decline. The whole thing happened in 24 hours!
And the gurus?