National Oilwell Varco (NOV) had a recovery from a February low but it ran out of steam somewhere on the way to a sustained advance. What do things look like from here? Back to the charts!
In this daily chart of NOV, above, we can see a price low in February and then a retest of that low in April. Prices improved enough that we were able to get above the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average in June. That strength did not last long and now NOV is below these two declining averages.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line made lows in February and April matching the price action but the OBV line has not had much upside movement. The current price weakness was foreshadowed by a bearish divergence. There were higher price highs made in May and then June but the momentum study made lower highs.
In this weekly chart of NOV, above, we can see some probes by NOV above the 40-week moving average line. These upside probes have not been sustained and the slope of the 40-week average remains pointed down. The OBV line on this time frame offers no help for the bulls.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has moved up to the zero line from below but it looks like it is narrowing to a new sell signal.
Bottom line -- NOV has been weak for the past two months and I would look for that trend to continue. I would not be surprised to see NOV retest the $28-$26 area. Maybe this will be a triple bottom, but right now that is too hard to call. It will take a close above $37 to turn things back to the topside.