I'm staying with the food sector here while running with the bulls. It is the one sector showing relative strength and decent setups. For now, I'm containing my focus to short-term views, as the overall market feels very much in flux.
The charts today skew between chasing strength and looking for a reversal. First up is Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), which is making a repeat appearance -- after a strong run in its first showing.
An important note before going through the charts this morning: neither of these stocks has triggered buys. They are set up as potential breakouts, but will need some buying, here, to trigger breakouts.
For instance, on CAKE, after a strong gap higher after earnings, the stock has faded over the last few days. This pullback has created a small bull flag here. The stock would only need a close over $56.30 to set up a quick test of $58 even in this market. The slightly longer-term 13-period RSI is still rooted above 50 and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is very strongly over 100. I want to see both of those stay in play, here -- above 50 and 100 -- with the price breakout, and then I would look for a quick-flip opportunity in CAKE. Any move back under $55 and I'll have to accept that I can't have my CAKE and eat it too. Instead, I'll be left with a stop for a loss.
BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) would be more of a reversal play, here. It has similar strengths in terms of RSI and CCI, but the Money Flow Index (MFI) is struggling a bit, here, raising a small yellow flag.
Price is an absolute must, here, in terms of breakout, as a result of the MFI figure and how far away the stop is from the current price. While I could almost justify an early push into CAKE, with a stop only 2% away, the stop on BJ's is more than twice that -- hence the need to be a bit more conservative. A few folks may want to point to the May-to-July run as a cup and all of July as a handle, but there needs to be a continuation of a move for that setup. We simply don't have it. I would look for the "W" setup right now, and look for a break over $51 to target $54 per share.
Neither of these look likely to offer huge upside, but the probability of follow through on a breakout looks stronger than the overall market, with stops that are clear. In this environment, I'll take favorable risk-reward setups -- even if they are only for 3% to 5% trades.