What are the odds that both China and Greece work out this weekend? What are the odds that most stocks in the Chinese market open and the averages just kind of do nothing? What are the odds that both the radical left in Greece and the hard right in Germany agree?
Pretty much all of those things have to work out not to roll back a lot of these gains, which, frankly, is pretty insane. Yet it sure seemed like people think everything's going to come up aces, as if they know the answer.
I don't think they do. So the blow could be pretty great if both Greece and China fall apart. I know I would have been tempted at the end of the day to have some puts on the usual suspects of General Motors (GM), Caterpillar (CAT) and Cummins (CMI) in China and the very liquid Deutsche Bank (DB) for Germany. But that would have taken, somehow, more bravery than buying calls with the way this tape was flying. (General Motors is part of TheStreet's Action Alerts PLUS portfolio.)
In the end, today was the most bullish day we have had in ages, with every sector except for energy screaming, and one has to figure that people seem to be betting that we all got too negative no matter what happens, or at least if we only bat 1-for-2.