It's important to take stock from time to time of what is working, and what is not. It has been a phenomenal stock picker's market since last summer within distressed value, but I am reminded often that those conditions will certainly not last forever, and it can turn on a dime.
Down and out toymaker JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) has been on a nice little run the past five months, and is up about 25%. The company is expected to break even next year after six consecutive quarterly losses. The toy business is extremely fickle, and it is unclear yet how the company's line of Incredibles toys is doing; but the Incredibles II movie itself has been huge, so hope springs eternal. So far, the choice of JAKK over Mattel (MAT) has worked fairly well; Mattel is up about 8% over the past five months, however JAKK was the riskier choice in my view.
FitBit (FIT) , on the other hand, has stumbled the past month. After topping out at $7.59 last month, following some renewed interest in the name, the stock has since pulled back about 11%. I expect that this tug of war will continue; there are more haters than lovers of the name, and it has much to prove, but the balance sheet remains solid.
Fashion retailer CATO Corp. (CATO) , which was becoming well-known for dreadful same store sales numbers, has quietly continued its recovery. Shares have more than doubled since March, and the dividend has been maintained. Now yielding 5.4%, CATO put up some decent May same store sales numbers announced early last month. It was not the 9% increase that was impressive given all of the previous horrendous reports, but rather the fact that the consensus estimate was calling for a 5% jump.
Private Corrections REIT CoreCivic (CXW) is also back on the upswing the past couple of months, with shares up 20% since the beginning of May. Ever the controversial name, this one has been all over the place in recent years. The yield is attractive at 7.23%, that is, if you can stomach the volatility of a name that will rise and fall based solely on politics, who is in charge, or may be in charge in the future.
Bloomin Brands (BLMN) , however, which I named as one of my favorite restaurant plays, is down 16% since mid-April. There's been no real news here to speak of, and the stock trades at less than 13 X next year's consensus estimates. We'll get our next dose of company progress (or lack thereof) when it reports second quarter earnings on July 27th. Consensus estimates are calling for earnings per share of 30 cents, on revenue of $1.05 billion.