Now it is about earnings.
With this employment number behind us, we have to focus on the fact that earnings season is now in front of us and it is a bit of a frightening specter.
For instance, what does Alcoa (AA) have for us? That's Monday's business, and I struggle to think which lines of business for the "new" Alcoa will be strong. Alumina and aluminum pricing could be worse.
Airlines, the chief business, I think will be good, and the problems at Firth Rixson will prove to be solvable. Autos will be fine. Containers will be fine. But trucks? Oh, Jeez, hard to see good there. Same with construction, although turbines might be okay.
I see Brexit problems, although remember the strong dollar is a mixed blessing for this one.
And I hope for clarity when it comes to the debt picture -- meaning something about where the key preferred that so many individuals own will reside.
Bulls have to hope for a mixed picture at best.
I think the most important takeaway though will be after Alcoa, when we get the much-hated and dreaded banks. Do the stocks reflect what should be very downbeat earnings? Remember the only thing that matters is Net Interest Margin, and if that's the case you are going to see lows for the cycle. That would mean $52 for JPMorgan (JPM) -- the Jamie buy price.
A saving grace? Last time, oil was much lower and the surprise factor of bad loans much higher because of that. Otherwise, I think buy the insurers. They always do well in an anti-bank environment. Think: Chubb Limited (CB) , Travelers (TRV) . And the money should circle back to Action Alerts PLUS charity portfolio holding Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) real soon.
Things are better off on that score, while far worse on the other NIM. We know these banks can't rally except off of yield support, which still isn't near.
And they will define next week's trading.
Random musings:
Baltic Freight over 700 means that something is happening that is good in China, in synch with the General Motors (GM) auto number... Stay tuned.
