Today proves, once again, there is almost always a better time to buy than an up opening. An up opening means that both the United States and Europe have to be good and they are almost always out of sync. That's because Europe needs the euro down to do well and we need it up. So the idea that, somehow, we can rally if the euro gets weak is a little hard to swallow.
Now that doesn't mean we can't rally if Greece is past us. That will happen. I am just saying that when you see our market up big off of Europe, remember that Europe is a complicated beast with little in common or compatible with us.
The fact that people think the European book is transferable is strictly a case of hedge fund macro -- it is the inability of hedge funds to do anything but react to what is happening instead of think ahead of what can happen. Their timing is almost always off.
It's pretty amazing, for example, to see Sanofi (SNY) and Novartis (NVS) rally big, but those are classic weak-economy, weak-euro plays and they fit in with what's happening in Europe. They are pretty much the opposite of what Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Bristol-Myers (BMY) need, which is a radically reduced dollar and stronger European economies with countries that are doing so well that they are more than willing to pay for expensive drugs.
Keep that in mind whenever you want to bow to the opening trade. Sure, once or twice it might work.
But I can't recall many instances where it made you much money at all, and I can recount many times when it lost you money.