United Parcel Service (UPS) has been making wider and wider up and down swings since February. A hundred years ago this kind of price action was a sign that pool operators were involved with a stock. Chart watchers today might call this a broadening pattern and a possible reversal pattern. We don't have pool operators today but we do have investors with large concentrations of capital who could create the same pattern.
Let's go beyond the chart pattern and also drill down at the indicators to see what some of the math driven tools say.
In this daily bar chart of UPS, above, we can see that UPS has rallied in the past four or five weeks from a new low at $102 to a new high around $111. UPS is above the rising 50-day moving average line and above the still-declining 200-day moving average line. The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been rising from an early February low to make a new 12-month high. A rising OBV line is a sign that buyers of UPS have been more aggressive with heavier volume being traded on days when the stock has closed higher on the day.
In the lower panel is 12-day momentum study, which shows a small bearish divergence with equal momentum highs versus higher price highs.
In this weekly bar chart of UPS, above, we can see that prices have just closed above the declining 40-week moving average line. While the daily OBV line (first chart above) showed signs of aggressive buying the weekly OBV line has been neutral for the past four months. The weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator crossed to a cover shorts buy signal at the end of May.
In this Point and Figure chart, above, we plotted percentage change movements instead of fixed dollar amounts. In this chart we can see a breakout at $108.68. There is some resistance above $113 to $117.69 but this chart suggests a potential price target of $127.86.
Bottom line: While the daily bar chart seems bullish the weekly chart is not quite there. Strategy-wise I would like to see UPS correct back to $108 to see if buyers step in and buy the dip. If a pullback holds I could then see buying strength and risking a close below $106.
