Why is oil giant Exxon (XOM) only down a half-dollar? Why is Permian powerhouse Cimarex (XEC) up almost a dollar? On a day when oil has definitely crashed through $43, what does that mean? (Cimarex is part of TheStreet's Action Alerts PLUS portfolio.)
How can we not ask this question when we see oil finally hit the target that Carley Garner predicted when oil was at $53?
I think we are seeing the big give-up where the analysts are saying, "It's going to 30 in a heartbeat."
It will be messy, as Carley told me this morning, but I think we have a chance to see the grand capitulation that has to happen for this commodity to bottom.
How about this for a scenario: I think the inventory numbers could be OK, but what happens if there is less drilling now that oil has come down so far so fast? What happens if the Baker Hughes rig count doesn't go up very much?
That could be the tell.
We are watching and waiting for Action Alerts PLUS. Oil's at our target. But there is no harm in waiting to see if it holds.