Century Aluminum (CENX) sold off from $80 to $1 during the bear market and bounced to the 38% selloff retracement in 2011. It pulled back in a broad rounded correction that posted a higher low in 2013 and rallied above the prior high in August of last year. That breakout failed in March of this year, in a high-volume decline that's now reached the 78.6% retracement of the two-year uptrend.
This is the last stop before a roundtrip to the 2012 low near $6. Major distribution starting in December is ongoing, with no evidence that institutions are building positions despite a couple of buy spikes.
Bottom line: There's no reason to be the first one back into this ferocious downtrend because it will take months of basebuilding to start a new uptrend. Even then, upside will be limited to the February breakdown in the low $20s.
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