Randgold Resources (GOLD) made a new high for the move up earlier this month -- a stronger performance than spot gold or SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) . Not all of our favorite technical studies for GOLD are bullish at this juncture, but it looks like GOLD can trade higher in the third quarter.
We haven't covered GOLD since early February, so fresh charts and indicators are needed.
In this daily bar chart of GOLD, above, we can see prices are above the rising 50-day simple moving average line. GOLD is also above the 200-day line, but its slope is still negative. There is a golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day averages in early May. The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line bottomed in December and has generally moved up with the price action, telling us that buyers of GOLD have been more aggressive. The trend-following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has been above the zero line (bullish) for much of the time since early January.
In this weekly chart of GOLD, above, we can see prices are above the 40-week moving average line, but the slope of the line is just turning flat from down. A rising 40-week moving average line could develop in the next few weeks. The weekly OBV line is pointed up but it stalled last month. Stronger volume on up days should push the OBV line to a new high. The weekly MACD oscillator has been bullish since early April.
In this Point and Figure chart of GOLD, above, we can see the uptrend from early 2017. Prices are still in a down column (O's) but a rally to $97 should turn the trend to X's, and a trade at $100 will be a double top breakout and yield potential price targets of $112 and $122 longer term.
Bottom line: GOLD shows great relative strength compared to bullion. I continue to like the long side and would risk a close below $85 now.