So that's all it takes, huh? A better tone between Germany and Greece? Some sense that this monstrous Greek issue can be put behind us?
On the surface, absolutely. But, to me, this is really about growth. For example, the move in bonds in Europe, where yields are just screaming higher, is a sign that business is getting better throughout the continent.
It makes sense. While energy prices are still low, they aren't so low that we sense a recession coming on, and Europe's benefiting mightily from its non-oil-producing status.
We've had a heating up of hatred in Russia, but have you noticed this issue has somehow become much less front-and-center vs. last year? I think there's more confidence on that issue, which is being greeted quietly but enthusiastically. It didn't hurt to see General Electric (GE) announce a 16-year service pact from a Russian energy company. I can't even imagine that kind of deal happening a year ago.
Then there's China. Now, we've all been disappointed by China's slowing of growth in the last year. But this morning Vale (VALE), the big Brazilian mining company, said it expects iron ore to tighten because China is buying more and producing less. This is very big news given how the iron market's been a terrific tell of the continuing slowdown.
Resource-heavy Latin America sure could use it.
Then there's oil itself. We just got statistics from the U.S. government that we are producing the most oil in 40 years. All of those shut-ins, all of those wells not drilled, and we are still raising production even as most thought this would be a very weak quarter for oil and a real decline in these stats.
So how can oil be going up? I say it's because of demand, raw demand that's better than we think because there's no way we could be storing all that oil. The refineries are running flat out and business is just plain better.
All of these, plus comments from the Japanese central bank that the yen's gotten about as low as it is going to go, signal that there's worldwide growth and that the currency hit for U.S. companies may not be as bad as we think going forward.
That's how you get a big rally on a day like today.
Random musings: Thanks for attending the webinar! Really appreciate your enthusiasm!