Shares of Fossil Group (FOSL) have struggled for more than two years and the slump does not look over, as evidenced by the downgrade from our quantitative service and the fact that we find no early bottom signs on the charts.
In this daily chart of FOSL, above, we can see the erosion to under $30 from above $70. During the decline there were two big gaps to the downside. FOSL is below its declining 50- and 200-day moving averages. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line is pointed down and tells us that sellers are still aggressive even at these lower levels. I favor the momentum study (lower panel) when I look for early bottoms (or tops), and here there are no bullish divergences to point out.
Because of the deep slide in the price of FOSL we needed to look at this long-term chart, above. Prices topped out in late 2013 and are still below the declining 40-week moving average line. Now prices are back down to levels not seen since 2009/2010. The next possible support level for FOSL is the $15 area.
Will $15 hold? Time will tell, but the farther back you look on a chart for support the less important it becomes as investors have had years to alter their positions.