Marathon Oil (MRO) peaked back in December and has lost ground for more than five months. With prices back in the middle of their June-October trading range ($12.50 to $16.50), this is a good time to take a fresh look at MRO.
The technical signals on MRO are currently mixed -- some still bearish and others improving -- so we could see further sideways prices action before a sustainable rally gets underway. Maybe a starter long position is warranted at this point in time.
In this daily bar chart of MRO, below, we can see that prices are below the declining 50-day moving average line and below the peaking 200-day moving average line. A bearish death cross of these two averages can be seen in late April. Many times death crosses (and golden crosses) occur late and this looks like it fits the mold. This month and late March it looks like dips under $14.50 found buying interest - similar to the June-October time period. The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been declining since mid-March and suggests that sellers of MRO have been more aggressive. There is a bullish divergence between the momentum study (bottom panel) with equal lows in February through now and the price action which shows lower lows from February.
In this weekly chart of MRO, below, we can see that prices are just below the flat 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line has been declining the past four months, giving back just a fraction of its rally from February. The weekly MACD oscillator is below the zero line for an outright sell signal.
In this Point and Figure chart of MRO, below, we can see that prices are in a down column of "Os". A rally back to $15.50 is need to turn things to an up column of "Xs". A rally to $17 is needed to really strengthen the chart.
Bottom line - aggressive traders could probe the long side here risking a close below $13. Add on strength above $16 and then $17.
