Over the past six months, the chart pattern of Horizon Pharma (HZNP) has weakened enough to suggest that prices could fall by a third from here.
In this daily chart of HZNP, above, we can see that prices were more than halved, from their late July zenith near $40, in about three months. Finally, some support developed around $15 in October: HZNP bounced to the upside and stayed above the 50-day moving-average line for about a month and a half.
But the new year brought a weaker chart: Prices broke below the 50-day moving-average line, and the 200-day average is pointed lower. The On-Balance-Volume line showed some improvement in October and November, but generally slopes lower the entire time on this chart, above. A downward sloping OBV line suggests that sellers are more aggressive -- volume of trading is higher on days when HZNP closes lower.
This weekly chart of HZNP, above, is bearish. Prices are pointed down, along with the bearish, 40-week moving-average line. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been pointed down since July of 2015. The MACD oscillator is not lending any support. The $15 level is not acting as an important support point, so HZNP could work lower to $10 in the weeks and months ahead.