Alibaba? Today? Do you have to? On one of the worst days for momentum investors in this whole selloff? You have to pick today? Don't you know that your deal is like still one more bell going off, like the bell that was rung by King Digital (KING) with all of those silly little characters running around high-fiving each other?
Like the bell that went off with Salesforce.com (CRM) beating all expectations, rallying hard and then reversed the next day?
Like the bell that went off today with Yelp's (YELP) the hideous slide to well below the stock was when this company reported the "good" quarter -- and the turnabout experienced by the stock of the fastest grower, Tableau Software (DATA)?
Lots of bells.
Suffice it to say that I find it as easy to be a bear right now on the Nasdaq as I did in April 2000, when the market was already rolling over but there were still plenty of short opportunities. There's just too much money flowing out of that sector, still, as the failures keep mounting.
That said, I reiterate that, if it is 2000, you can make good money in the old Standard & Poor's 500 names, as the money has to find a home and not everyone can continually reach for yield. Remember, the real bubble is in the bond market, not the stock market, and that can only be pricked by supply. There's a simple solution: Have the Fed stop buying and have the Treasury issue 1 trillion dollars' worth of 30-year paper so we can take any liquidity issues off the table. Anyway, it's exactly what savers want. Give it to them.
Doesn't matter, though, where I say the real bubble is. The action in the software-as-a-disservice-to-your-portfolio stocks is horrible. The Twitter (TWTR) abomination is unfathomable -- and most likely going lower -- and I now wonder whether my $29 target is too high.
And Alibaba? Any deal can be done at a price. But I am already sick of all of the people who say, "Alibaba is the top," and no one has even said it. Hmm, maybe I have first-mover advantage in the game.