I'll admit I have to reach deep into the bag to find a bullish name here today. So, instead, I'll look at something I wouldn't mind buying and holding for the longer term with the potential to pop in the near term and a pretty well-defined stop.
CVR Partners (UAN) is going to offer up an aggressive yield for those willing to get long here. The stock is breaking out from a tight squeeze here this morning. It has spent the better part of two months trading in a fairly consistent range, even shaking off a potential breakdown in late March. The price pattern resembles a very drawn-out inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that measures out to the $15.30 area. While this may not be huge, if we see that combined with even one distribution of $0.45 per share for the quarter, the overall return would be very appealing. There are secondary supporting indicators here on the bullish side. The relative strength is holding above 50 and the longer term 13 period vortex indicator is shifting into positive territory.
I don't see anything wrong with waiting until later in the day here to see what develops. UAN needs to stay over $14 into the close to make a breakout plausible. Furthermore, a little more push in the slow stochastics would indicate that some acceleration in price movement, likely to the upside, is of higher probability than what we've seen in the past two months.
I did mention a tight stop. The daily chart has one, but I'd defer to the weekly chart because I believe it provides more clarity. Again, we see the consolidation and the potential breakout today. A much larger inverse head and shoulder is present with price actually above the descending neckline already.
Before we get too excited and start calling for a $20 price target, we need some further confirmation here. Back in May of last year, we had a very similar setup. But back then, the seven-week moving average crossed under the 11-week moving average and the stock didn't recover. I used the seven- and 11-week averages as they roughly translate to the 34-day and 55-day moving averages. I tend to work Fibonacci numbers into my indicators and this is one such case.
At that time, we also saw the Force Index drop under 0, the RSI fall under the 50 midline and the vortex indicator crossover bearishly. Right now, we have the Vortex Indicator flirting with a bearish crossover and the seven-week moving average just under the 11-week moving average. What we don't have is the RSI dropping and Force Index. As long as those hold, I will stay bullish on this one. As far as a stop goes, any weekly close under $13 on this one and it's the sidelines. There is simply not enough support until we get closer to $11.50, so why sit around and have the risk of another 10% lower if we break under $13.
No hurries today on forcing a buy. Wait for your pitch here. Pretend like you are in an empty stadium, so there's no pressure from the fans to do something great. Instead, just do something right.