Remember: it is Europe, not the United States. The 10-year Treasury is still below 2.3%; that's not what the bulls want. I think oil fails to rally and heads back to $47. Why not: the rig count is up and Halliburton (HAL) is signaling, again, a real resurgence of drilling in the Permian.
Meanwhile, we are getting a level of pumping around the globe that tells me neither worldwide growth -- and there is growth -- nor Saudi discipline is going to rein supply in.
Why am I focused on these two inputs? Because a European election doesn't change the algorithms that key off these two vital barometers of whatever the algos think are worthwhile. We are certainly in the grips of these two, and there's not a sign in the world that says differently.
Yes, we have Trump's tax plan, but have you noticed how silent Paul Ryan has been about working hard with Trump to avoid a government shutdown? Shouldn't have this been solved already? The distance between Congress and the President seems to grow every day.
I do like the earnings profile here. We already got a better number from Halliburton than we thought and those who shorted Hasbro (HAS) off of Mattel (MAT) remain badly exposed to a lack of knowledge or intellect.
But we all know that Europe for us was binary. It could be bad or it could be a non-event. It's the latter, and I don't know if it will turn out to be more than that.