How far can we go on a failed missile test and the end of tax season?
Historically, we are in the stronger part of April, a good month until we get the "sell in May" nonsense.
We are right on the cusp of earnings season and I remain a believer in the international strength.
But the narrative of rate hikes and a bond sell program into what is most certainly a weaker time in the economy makes you blanch about the opportunities. I do believe the oil price, as I mentioned last week, is on the downslide given that north of the $50s is where massive U.S. oil futures selling by real companies comes out because they are locking in such fabulous prices.
We are really in a difficult place if rates go lower because there is simply no way every piece of data can create a counterstory, save a win for Trump.
All weekend I have been thinking that if this administration were simply to start pushing for repatriation as a parallel track in order to save what is increasingly looking like an embittered moment, then there could be an opportunity.
In other words, something positive from Washington combined with decent earnings from international companies based at home could produce some decent gains.
My hesitation comes from JPMorgan (JPM) . That was a truly great quarter. We can find flies on anything and I know they have been found on that one, but it is just too hard to reconcile a big run with that stock down so hard from its highs.
It's my key to this market and I want to be sidelined except for some victory profit-taking in Arconic (ARNC) until I see the whites of IBM's (IBM) and Bank of America's (BAC) eyes. (Arconic is part of TheStreet's Action Alerts PLUS portfolio.)