Go sell now and not in May, will you? Sell your Apple (AAPL) right now, will you? Short the banks, will you? Bet against oil, will you? Sell all your tech, will you? Get rid of all your "China on" plays, will you? Dump all of your retail stocks because they all borrowed from the spring, will you? Eliminate any homebuilders because of that terrible housing start number, will you?
Of course, I am mostly kidding. I don't think you should sell any of these. I hate all those pithy sayings about selling in this period or buying in that one. Sure, sometimes they turn out to be right. However, I don't think it makes a lot of sense to sell Waste Management (WM) in April, buy it back in September, and miss all of those dividends in between. Am I really supposed to dump Panera (PNRA) in May and pick it up 20 points later? Or sell Chipotle (CMG) in April to beat the May sellers so I can miss the 150-point run? All because of some ditty? Some dubious bit of badinage?
Or how about Apple? The papers were filled with stories pronouncing Apple dead today. Was it death by iPad? By carrier subsidy? By people who realize that the stock was just too red hot? How smart were you if you dumped it yesterday. Not all that smart. Without your apple a day, you gave 27 points away.
I know everyone's anti-oil ever since the Iranian crisis was solved, natural gas became the president's favorite bridge fuel -- busting OPEC -- and China decided to cut back on its use of oil. Oops, no resolution whatsoever in Iran. The president seems deeply committed to producing solar energy, which isn't very surface fuel-efficient. Natural gas had entered the lexicon strictly as one of a litany of homegrown remedies. China? Burning the stuff like there is no tomorrow.
You want to bet against the banks now that they have revenue growth and declining loan-loss reserves. You want to bet against an industry that is finally getting it together, where no more new capital has to be raised and where companies and people are starting to borrow again? Go right ahead. Doesn't bother me. The Wall Street Journal agrees with you that they are doing poorly, even if the stocks have roared back to life. Sorry, the facts say things are better. Even Meredith Whitney, the bank basher, I think just got a new brain -- unless she's the woman with two brains. She said she would need a new one if she ever recommended Citigroup (C) and yet here she was today going to Hold from Sell on the colossus she hated.
When retail turns out to be solid in April, despite higher gasoline prices, will you just say they borrowed from May? That should keep you from making money in this red-hot group as it has all year. The homebuilders? Heck, I don't even like them, but when you build as few homes as we are, the existing stock goes for more money and that makes the homebuilding inventory go up in value.
So, be my guest. Dump everything. You had an up day to do so. Count me out. I am too busy detailing all of these great investments to recommend selling them.
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