If Netflix (NFLX) were a private company, this next round would be done at $50 billion. And everyone from hedge funds to venture capitalists to mutual funds would want to be in it. There wouldn't be enough stock to go around, though. And that's why, when it came public, it would go up even more.
The $28 billion valuation of Netflix is ridiculously low. How in heck could this be valued only at the price of Viacom (VIA)? How can this be just slightly below the valuation of CBS (CBS)? How can it just be worth a few billion more than Discovery (DISCA)? Are those worldwide franchises that dominate? Are they worth paying a couple of bucks a month for their original programming? Can you imagine wasting a full weekend watching their original programming? Are you kidding me?
People remember where Netflix was. They know it was worth a heck of a lot less, a quarter of what it's worth now. They act as if, therefore, it's ridiculous where it is now.
Can we just stipulate it was ridiculously valued then because management screwed up and people didn't understand how big Netflix could be?
Now, all companies get valued quarterly, and who the heck knows if this quarter is the one that takes the company to its private valuation. All I can tell you is the fact that a Google (GOOGL) or a Facebook (FB) or an Apple (AAPL) or, most important, a Microsoft (MSFT) hasn't bought it shows a failure of imagination on everyone's part.
Netflix is an institution. A worldwide one. It should be valued accordingly. One day it will be. Not this week. Maybe not this month. But one day. And that's why any decline is a gift for those who have failed to get in to date.
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