Gosh, remember when we pined away for that elusive 1% down day? We've now seen two in the last three trading days, so you would have thought there'd be some level of fear -- but all we've really seen has been a big drip lower.
It was a few short weeks ago that folks were very excited about Bank of America (BAC) having finally made it above $10. Almost daily, that was all we heard about. Yet, in the past three weeks this stock has quietly sank 10%, and folks have completely ignored it.
What about the housing recovery? Isn't Toll Brothers (TOL) supposed to be the best of the best? That stock, too, has quietly slipped 10% in the last few weeks. What's more, the stock is now trading lower than where it was during the last jobs-data release on Feb. 3. Does that surprise you to know? So, please, let us not blame this decline on Friday's lousy jobs report. This move has been developing for months.
You might notice I am not even bothering with the materials names, which are down well over 20% across the board. But here's one to mention: I did notice that Coach (COH) has been rolling over quite nicely, coming within $1 of its March 6 low. I thought the retailers were behaving terrifically, yet this stock has made no progress in two months.
I am not simply picking on stocks that have dribbled down. I am showing you these charts for a specific purpose. It's so you can see exactly how the S&P 500 can be just a few percent off its highs, and still much higher than its March 6 low, all while the oscillator nears a lower low. This indicator is based on the advance-decline line, yet it's now finds itself at the bottom of the page once again.
In fact, if you look at the 30-day moving average of the advance-decline line, you can see it's sinking to lows not seen since late December. This represents what the majority of stocks have been doing. If you own anything other than the "Fab Five," you know what I mean.
So stocks are getting oversold -- it appears to me that reading will be reached Wednesday -- but I think we lack the panic and the fear that we had even back on March 6. There are those who believe the Apple (AAPL)-Priceline (PCLN) combo needs to falter before we can see any panic. I wouldn't argue that point, but I would note this: Without panic, all we're likely to see is a crummy rally back to the underside of the now-broken uptrend lines -- at best.
One last thing to keep in mind: The intermediate-term indicators continue to head downward.
More on the broad market: