Apartment Investment & Management (AIV) broke out to the upside last month from a 15-month trading range. This broad consolidation should support a rally into the $45-$50 area in the weeks ahead.
In this daily chart, above, we can see the sideways trading range of AIV. You can easily lose count of how many times prices crossed above and below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The slopes of both moving averages have turned positive, which is a technical plus. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been neutral for much of the past 12 months, but started to improve again in February. Now that prices broke out to a new high, we would want to see that the OBV line also breaks out to a new high. Another indicator we will continue to monitor is the momentum study, which has been diverging from the price action recently.
In this weekly chart, above, we can see the breakout from the 15-month trading range. On a weekly time frame, the OBV line looks better than the daily time frame. The slope of the 40-week moving average line is now positive. In the lower panel, the trend-following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator just generated a "go long" signal with its movement back above the zero line. We think AIV will continue the uptrend, but we always want to remember and balance the risk. A close back below the breakout point at $40 would prompt us to re-evaluate our position.