Wholesale shift?
The rally today represented a return to domestic tranquility led by Lennar (LEN) with a good quarter, retail with Costco (COST) , Dollar Tree (DLTR) , Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot (HD) based on strong employment -- ADP -- and the banks because they have no international to speak of.
Healthcare caught a bid in part because it's been down too much and it is compelling that the move is led by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) which could run much higher. United Health (UNH) is back. I think it is telling by the way, that we got a note this morning about weaker sales at HD and LOW right now and I don't think it can really be verified. Anyway, we are about to head into the spring selling season and that's what matters for these. I keep trying to figure out whether Low's will be in disarray over the change at the top or is it just onward and upward. Either way, it's domestic and that's what matters. It's interesting to see CVS (CVS) and Walgreen's (WAG) go higher as they have been at death's door for ages.
Amazingly (GM) was up too, as if the tariffs aren't for real. The U.S. has gotten stronger for GM and the last domestic number matters more than China.
Of course the issue is that we don't know what to do with tech. I think Apple (AAPL) was up because China didn't single out Apple. The worst fears weren't realized. I think the cloud kings bounced, led by Adobe (ADBE) and Red Hat (RHT) , because they do not have much to do with China but a ton to do with e-commerce. Adobe's ridiculously strong. Just ridiculous. But it isn't going to be stopped any time soon.
Chips are harder. They have huge China exposure and we'll see them under a cloud until we get more clarity. Nvdia's (NVDA) down because of an Ethereum card competitor, something that shouldn't matter given the momentum of the company but which certainly does at the moment. I think, though, that the autonomous driving issue are not as front and center as a week ago.
Perhaps the hardest of all is Boeing (BA) because it has been so strong for so long that it is just due and it will stay due until this is all cleared up.
The market pivoted so fast away from tech and toward domestic on just a few good numbers -- autos and housing -- that it seems like the worries were totally misplaced.
That, plus the technical which showed that we held so many key levels allowed us to come back from the lows of the day pretty easily.
I don't want to get cocky here. You have to believe that all of this talk about the wall to Mexico is preparing the president to break up NAFTA. We know from the Chinese tariffs that we will not get wind of it until after it matters. But it's been very right to sell the rips and that means you don't have all that much time before he tries something unstable like that.
Here's another thought. Is today the day that the president is beginning to look foolish about Amazon (AMZN) ? I think unless he produces someone from the Post Office who says the Post Office loses fortunes on the deal with Amazon, then he will seem the epitome of recklessness. Amazon isn't a wholly sympathetic character but we love free shipping and the president could change that, or alternatively the price comes down if the USPS breaks the deal and Amazon institutes its own Sunday delivery helped by Fedex (FDX) and UPS (UPS) .
Random musings: Zuck speaks and is apologetic and, more important, hints the numbers aren't being hurt. Next we get an outside auditor to be sure the protections are in place and the stock can get back to a premium multiple on next year's earnings.
