The bears were starting to gain a little confidence this morning but they seem to have forgotten that this is prime time for end-of-quarter window dressing, and that took us well off the lows into the close. One indication that window-dressing action moved the indices back to near flat is that breadth was still poor, with 2200 gainers to 3250 decliners. The big-caps are marked up while many small-caps are left to flounder.
The end of a quarter and the first day of a new quarter tend to produce quite a bit of manipulative action, so we want to be careful about reading too much into some of these quick spikes. What is notable is that there are cracks appearing in this uptrend and we aren't acting quite the same as we were a few weeks ago.
Even though we did bounce back this afternoon, and I think we could see a little beginning-of-the-new quarter, cash-inflow buying next week, I'm feeling less bullish than I have in a while. I'm not putting on any big shorts, but I see deterioration in many individual stocks that I follow and I'm focusing on keeping portfolio values as close to high as possible.
If the bulls find their footing and put this uptrend solidly on track, I'll need to chase some buys, but that seems to be the only way to trade these days since pullbacks are such a quaint, old-fashioned notion.
I'll keep digging for individual stocks to buy, but the big picture is looking a little murkier and that is going to make me more selective. Overall, a little downside action will be better in the long run, but if we can avoid some of the resulting pain, that will be even better.
Have a good evening. I'll see you tomorrow.
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