Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) has not gotten a fresh battery or been reviewed since the summer. In the past seven months FOSL has made a saucer-like bottom formation. Back in August I wrote, "I have said this before, a bottom is not a point in time but rather a process. Has the low been seen? Maybe, but I doubt it. Can FOSL go lower to $5 -- it is possible. What needs to happen? Prices need to stabilize and investors need to accumulate shares which should show up in the performance of the OBV line."
Looking at a current chart (below) we can see that FOSL dipped below $6 in November and the OBV line started showing improvement in February. What else does the chart now show?
In this daily bar chart of FOSL, below, we see a dramatic-looking upside gap in February. Prices were above the rising 50-day moving average line already but then jumped above the declining 200-day line. The price adjustment has been so sharp that the 200-day average line has flattened.
The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line was bearish until February but is now showing improvement or accumulation.
The trend-following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator turned up above the zero line for a buy signal in early January. This indicator is now close to a fresh go long signal as it is turning higher from above the zero line.
In this three-year weekly bar chart of FOSL, below, we can see that prices are above the flat 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line shows improvement in the past two months and the weekly MACD oscillator just gave a weekly buy signal by crossing above the zero line.
In this Point and Figure chart of FOSL, below, we can see a long downtrend. The recent rally shows without a price gap and we can see that $18 was a price target that was reached.
Bottom line: It looks like FOSL has finally made a low and part of a bottom formation. More work needs to be done, in my opinion. The watch business has changed a lot in the past several years but the charts of FOSL need to show more accumulation (buying) before a sustained rally can get underway.