Market Weakness Today Has Nothing to Do With Tillerson

 | Mar 13, 2018 | 12:33 PM EDT
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The likely narrative in the business press today is that the firing of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson caused the market to selloff because it is evidence of chaos in the Trump Administration. It is a convenient cause-and-effect headline and also is appealing to the many Trump critics in the press.

The truth is that the market weakness today has nothing to do with Tillerson or the Trump Administration. The market was overbought and badly in need of some profit taking. Headline news is simply a convenient trigger for the market to do what it is already inclined to do. The market doesn't care about Tillerson but it's a helpful prod for the selling that that was developing.

I expect this profit taking to continue and am taking my time with some dip buys. I actually feel more optimistic about trading when we have action of this type because it should create more opportunities. There was nothing to buy at the open this morning, but now there are plenty of names that are developing.

What we have to do now is watch for the next trigger which is likely to be the Pennsylvania Congressional election tonight. The media will be anxious to portray it as a negative referendum on Trump but if the market sells off enough the conditions will be good for a bounce tomorrow.

Keep in mind that it's the price action that drives the news and not the other way around. The news that matters is that which most easily explains the price action. Tillerson may be the headline but it isn't what is causing the selling.

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