Let's play lose money!
Here's a great game where everyone who should have bought yesterday at the low comes in and buys today at the high, thinking they are going to miss something big.
They justify it by saying "Europe does like Draghi's plan after all, so we should like it, too!" They end up paying up for stocks like Kroger (KR) and Home Depot (HD) and United Health (UNH) and Southwest Air (LUV) or whatever else they are all caught up in and can't wait for, and their first buy is, as they say, their worst buy.
But that's how the game of lose money gets played.
When we were playing the game of lose money off the Chinese indices, it seemed like we were doing something right, given that some companies truly rely on China for their markets. Of course, that particular game was totally wrong, too, because the most Chinese oriented of all stocks, Caterpillar (CAT), took off the moment that the Shanghai index was hitting lows.
If stocks are any real sort of prognosticators of the future, it should be the other way around. But then again, integral to the game of lose money is the ingrained notion that nothing you are doing actually makes sense: you are simply looking at another, non-correlative market, and making emotional decisions based on the direction of that market, not the direction of the fundamentals of companies you are actually dealing with.
Why are people addicted to the game of lose money? First, there are always one or two times when it actually pays, and somehow we remember them. Second, because so few people are ever content enough or secure enough in themselves to say: "You know what? When the market was sinking in the middle of the day, down 300 points from the high, I should have bought but, oh well, might as well buy now."
In other words, so few people are willing to say, "Damn, I missed it, well, I will try to do better next time." They shoehorn next time into this time, and the shoe doesn't fit.
Of course if there is a rally that, somehow, is actually based on a weak dollar and slightly higher oil, then you can ponder which international isn't up enough and perhaps make a buy.
But perhaps this is different. It's not part of the great game of lose money, so it will most likely not happen, and therefore will not be played.