February Trade Ideas Rundown: How'd We Do?

After you've been trading for a few decades, the common complaints run together. The introduction of social media added a new wrinkle to maybe the most common complaint: accountability. If you read Twitter, watch TV, or read a newsletter, you'd conclude everyone is killing it. Part of what I loved about running AAO (Action Alerts OPTIONS) was the consistent accountability. Every trade was recorded and there for subscribers to see. It's not too different here. All our posts are archived, so you can verify trades with a little digging. I thought it would be good to get back into the habit of self-accountability. Not every trade is going to be a winner. The quicker you accept that as a trader, the longer you'll survive and possibly flourish. It's human nature to want to avoid those nasty parts of our life that don't go the way we wish, but we're not doing anyone any favors, especially ourselves, avoiding it. So, without further ado, let's see how my February trade ideas have played out thus far. Spoiler alert: if you are looking for perfection, you can stop reading right here. I'm going to do this by date order to avoid any theories that I'm cherry picking or using a positive-negative-positive feedback loop. Jan. 30 -- 2U The idea: Buy Mar $75-85 call spreads at $3.50. After a strong earnings report, the stock is currently trading above $86, potentially maxing out this trade. At the very least, traders can nail down at least an $8 value currently. Feb. 1 -- Aquantia The idea: Buy the stock at $13.99. AQ is trading slightly higher at $14.30, but shares did touch $17 the second week in February offering an opportunity to grab at least partial profits Feb. 5 -- PayPal The idea: Buy 1 Mar $80 call, sell 1 Mar $75 put for a net cost of $1.14. PayPal shares have surged above $81.50 and this risk reversal is printing $2.55+ right now offering an opportunity to grab solid profits. Feb. 6 -- Planet Fitness The idea: Sell May $30 puts at $2.10. After a solid earnings report, PLNT is trading around $37. The put can be repurchased for only $0.65. I'd grab this one and enjoy the win. Feb. 6 -- Lululemon The idea: Sell Mar $70 puts at $1.05 (or buy shares over $80). LULU is trading above $82 with the Mar $70 puts around $0.20. Either way worked out for traders. Bag it and tag it. Feb. 8 -- Control4 Corp. The idea: Buy Feb. $25-30 call spread for $1.80. Yeah, I'd like to have this one back. Initially, it looked like it might be a winner after CTRL posted strong earnings. Nope. CTRL never had a chance. Feb. 9 -- Xinyuan The idea: April $5 calls at $1.50. Strong earnings have not helped this play. While there is still time, the calls have dropped to around $1.00. I'd stay with it a few more weeks, but back-to-back disappointments. Feb. 12-- InflaRx The idea: buy the stock up to $26.20 This was a tough one. If you snagged shares, you enjoyed a quick ride to my $30-35 target range as the stock ran all the way to $34.86 in less than two weeks. Unfortunately, it's hard to call this one a win as it ran away quickly. Feb. 13 - Cinemark The idea: Buy Mar $35 calls at $3.40 or better. With CNK trading at $43.70, it's hard to call this anything but a blockbuster. Calls are now trading at $8.70 and if you haven't taken profits or hedged your position, please do so! Feb. 14 -- MacroGenics The idea: Buy the stock at $23.60 Shares have crept higher to $24.48, but not with the explosiveness I envisioned. I'd be inclined to cut the position in half for a small profit and set my stop at an overall breakeven. Feb. 20 -- Fossil Group The idea: Sell to open Mar $12.50 put at $0.45. Shares have shown flashes of rallying, then been beaten back quickly. The options are trading in the $0.45 to $0.50 range. I still think the odds are on the put sellers side here. Feb. 21 - Sirius XM The idea: Buy to open January 2019 $5.50 -$7.00 call spread at $0.63 or better. SIRI has inched higher currently at $6.30, so the intrinsic value has moved above the purchase price. Still, this one is only breakeven at the moment. Feb. 22 -- Array Biopharma The idea: Buy to open April $18-22 call spread at $1.35 or better. Array flashed higher, but the stock has since struggled. I'd be inclined to cut my loss quickly here and try to sell this around $1.15, but for no less than $1.10. Feb. 23 - Chipotle Mexican Grill The idea: Buy to open April $340-$355 call spread; sell to open April $270 put for a net cost of $50. CMG has rallied slightly, but the real plus is volatility falling. This one has pushed higher sitting around $170 right now. I'd continue to ride it. Recent trades in BlackBerry , Square , and Express are too new for a full rundown, but the lack of reaction from SQ after earnings has pushed the position into the red quickly. I haven't written it off completely, but it appears it will land squarely (no pun intended) in the loser's category. So, there you have it. The rundown from the trade ideas in Real Money Pro for February 2018.

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