It's painful when you have to hope for a mistake. If you didn't put money to work, if you waited for the retest, if you actually just out and out sold now you are stuck trying to buy what hasn't and won't work.
The best opportunities seem to have moved way too much. You want to buy a semi? Most have moved dramatically and the ones that haven't are embroiled in takeovers or are too levered to cellphones.
You want a cyclical? You need a disappointment to get in one.
You want an industrial? We decided to buy 3M (MMM) today. We didn't want to buy it all at once because there was no particular edge to doing so today.
It just happened.
It just went straight up.
Our disciplines made it so we couldn't buy more.
I know, like you, I hear that the rally is smaller, the winners fewer.
I think that's just untrue. It's just some stocks go up in two or three or four points while others just go up by a point or less.
The ones that go down?
They are going down typically because they actually missed earnings. Yes some did.
But for us, we feel that this train has left for now and we need Jay Powell to say something wrong or the Vix to spike or the dollar get strong or oil get weak or 10-year note interest rates going back to 3%.
Hey. That's a long list of what could go wrong.
It just hasn't.