Universal Display Corp. (OLED) has gapped lower today, starting a downtrend that can be traced back to a mid-January zenith. The chart shows there is some potential support in the $130 area but the gap and break of the 200-day moving average line suggest a deeper decline is possible. Let's look closer.
In this daily bar chart of Trifecta holding OLED, below, we can see a strong uptrend the past 12 months where prices have tripled. Since November some bearish divergences have appeared so the bulls had some warning signals. Prices made higher highs from November to January but the daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) failed to make a higher high.
In the lower panel we can see the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator also diverged from the price action with a lower high in January. With the 50-day moving average line in a decline and prices under the 200-day line the moving averages are giving a bearish picture.
In this weekly bar chart of OLED, below, we do not have this week's price action but we can imagine that prices are below the rising 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line is declining and it tells us that sellers of OLED have become more aggressive. The weekly MACD oscillator has already crossed to the downside for a take profits sell signal.
In this Point and Figure chart of OLED, below, we can see the sharp selloff today without the gap. A downside price of $95 is also displayed.
Bottom line: With bearish divergences and sell signals I do not anticipate that OLED will find support around $130 or even $120 and a deeper decline is possible.
