No conviction. That's what's driving this market. No one has any conviction and it tempts the bears like honey from a tree.
You can measure it. Take today when the market opened ugly and then got uglier. What happened? You started to read and hear story after story about how bad of a month February is! You started to hear that this is the big rollover. The same negative cyclical bets from last year were put in again. And, of course, the usual "risk-off" clowns surfaced on the tube with their gibberish.
No, I am not saying that the market can't go down. I am simply saying it didn't go down today.
Sometimes it is worth doing the outrageous and simply saying that what was supposed to happen didn't happen and not to extrapolate it into mis-statements
Come on. Today should have been horrendous. We have no transports to confirm us because the rails are coal carriers. We have no consumer to confirm us because retail sales were terrible. We have no Greek deal or even the prospects of one, it seems -- although a rumor at the end of the day drove us higher.
The shorts were proven as wrong on the S&P 500 as they were on individual stocks like Rackspace (RAX), which, somehow, is being viewed as a bad stock by short sellers when it might be a bad stock in the future, but it sure isn't now. Or Fossil (FOSL), which basically took back its own guidance that it gave one hour later in its conference call. Or Kors (KORS),which turned out to be cheaper than we thought when it sold at 60x earnings.
The cake-taker for me, though, was Amazon.com (AMZN). I always keep Bloomberg TV on and when Herb Greenberg on "Street Signs" on CNBC said that Rackspace has a worthy competitor in Amazon and he postulated the notion of Amazon spinning off its hosting division, I thought it weird that Amazon was trading down.
Then I saw the Bloomberg headline about how the Prime service that is so important to Amazon's growth is thought to have far more customers than it really does.
I figured Amazon would be down 10.
Nah, goes down five and then rallies and rallies hard and almost finishes up.
Talk about the bear coup de grace -- for the day.
I add that last phrase, again, because I am very tired of being second-guessed and, if the market goes down tomorrow, all I can say is that I didn't tell you so and I didn't tell you not so.