Makes some sense. But who the heck knows, with Amazon? It's a very emotional stock, in a market with a terrible mood disorder that just lost its high-growth compadres in biotech, as well as Tesla (TSLA) and perhaps Netflix (NFLX). When I went through the conference call, I actually liked what I heard. It was no Facebook. But to call it subpar would be stupid.
Still, do you know, at one point yesterday I thought that maybe, just maybe, some clown put together an algorithmic program that allows you to buy FANG -- which includes Google owner Alphabet (GOOGL) -- as a unit on any good news for one of the participants.
But if one of the letters doesn't blow away and guide up, the whole group sinks.
There are so many stupid things happening in this market, that it takes my breath away. Yes, Facebook was terrific, and it does sell for only 20x 2018 numbers.
But who the heck knows what Amazon sells at? It sells for some sort of number that is inscrutable and is in the eye of the beholder. I looked at it and thought it would please some of the momentum hounds who want to buy it, but the current shareholders are clearly let down by the company not saying this is the beginning of the big run. Maybe the momentum guys wanted Amazon to say that there they are going to take over the world by the third quarter?
In the meantime, Microsoft (MSFT) does this terrific blocking and tackling quarter, and I like what they had to say on every front. The cloud business remains strong, and that's what people want, but the rest of the businesses aren't exactly dropping off.
Microsoft is no longer a PC company. It is a post-PC company that almost feels like it should develop a good bank-bad bank scenario for Windows. Except Windows makes fortunes.
So, the lower multiple tech rules, and the no multiple tech and health care get blown away.
The question on the health care scenario is will these be the nursing home stocks, which Bill Clinton really did wipe out, or will these be stocks where the lobbyists come in and tell great stories and spread a lot of money and there's no more hope for change than there is for gun regulation?
You have to make a choice. Just maybe not now, because your fellow shareholders are way too nervous. As long as they stay that way, the only prediction that makes sense is pain. If you can take it, I think you will make money, but if you own some , as we do for Action Alerts PLUS, you have to err on the side of waiting.