Will the Trump tripod be knocked over by tweets and press conferences that focused on the number of people who came to his inauguration? Will this focus scuttle the plan to cut corporate taxes, repatriate assets and deregulate?
We know this: while everyone threw stones about the weekend's issues, the President pretty much gutted the ACA via executive order, making it so the entire edifice of the program could be gutted. As Sheryl Skolnick writes in an excellent note at Mizuho, the hospital stocks could be turned upside down as the funding for the program would drop dramatically. "Adverse selection" could ensue for the hospitals.
That would cause negative cash flow for the group -- which to me means sell HCA Holdings (HCA) and Tenet (THC) today. Plus, the whole exchange business would be called into question starting in 2018, which would mean that only HMOs that haven't relied on them for earnings --namely her top pick, UnitedHealth (UNH) , would do well.
I do not understand how the hospital stocks have been so strong here. If the executive order is indeed a "death warrant" for the ACA, then you can stop thinking, wait, what some consider his pettiness is going to derail deregulation.
NAFTA's law. But here, again, is an example of something that Trump is going after right now, today, in a way that some legal constitutional lawyers say is perfectly legitimate even as others say it isn't. Who knows? But it isn't part of the tripod?
So how about taxes and repatriation? I don't know how these two legs of the rally are hurt by the weekend's ruckus -- whether you liked it or not.
These are issues that are basically in the House and Senate already. Do I think that the Democrats will hate what happened this weekend? Shocker: they hate everything Trump stands for. Do I think that the Democrats picked up Republican votes because of his behavior?
Can the Democrats slow the appointment process making it difficult for Trump to get done? I think that hearings and confirmations do take time. But they would delay, not derail the agenda.
I think the mainstream media has made up its mind that Trump can't get anything done because he is focused on issues involving crowd size.
I am sure there are issues where his clout might have been impacted.
I just don't think the tripod the rally rests on is one of them.