Perfect, just what we don't need: an oversold spike before anything is resolved. We need something from China that's concrete to verify the turn and we need oil not to slice like a hot knife through butter into the low $20s. There's too many defaults if it happens that fast, as you can tell from the action in the master limited partnerships and the independent oil and gas companies.
It's just nasty out there.
That said, the consumer stocks do want to go higher. They really do.
And they will if oil just doesn't do anything. A stable oil at $29 to $30 would produce $1.90 gasoline and allow some of these producers to buy others. The consolidation.
Right now, though, we are in free-fall and that's not conducive to making a stand on anything.
Today was truly weird. We had a stand going in biotech, and then Bob Hugin, the best in the game, stepped up to executive chairman of Celgene (CELG). Aside from just making me feel old -- we are neighbors -- the market is so uncertain that it hated the change. We had what looked like solid gold in this Shire (SHPG)-Baxalta (BXLT) tie-up with both stocks flying, but that sure didn't last.
And then there's the death rattle in the patch with Freeport (FCX) down 20%. I say let "it" happen already, whatever the heck "it" is.
Now, we are at about minus-5 on the oscillator and that's negative enough to make things bounce as they did. We probably can make a brief stand here, but as I wrote this morning, there's a checklist of boxes to help divine a bottom and right now none are checked.