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  1. Home
  2. / Investing
  3. / Real Estate

No Way This Market Is Over-Valued

Compared to the markets 17 years ago, after the tech bubble burst, we are only now getting into the green.
By JAY SOMANEY Jan 07, 2017 | 10:00 AM EST
Stocks quotes in this article: CUDA, INFY, KBH, DAL, BAC, JPM, WFC

Jobs number out of the way. Check.

Four Fed heads (Mester, Evans, Lacker and Kaplan) mouthing off yesterday. Check.

If you thought this past Friday was an overdose of Fed speeches and comments or what I like to call "lining up for the post-Fed millions," think again ... very hard.

We will begin the week with speeches by Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, at 9 a.m. EST on Monday followed by Dennis Lockhart, Atlanta Fed boss, that afternoon at 12:40 p.m.

Tuesday and Wednesday the Fed will spare us any appearances. At least as far as scheduled appearances go.

Thursday will bring us five Fed officials: Patrick Harker, Philly Fed chief at 8:30 a.m.; Charles Evans, Fed boss of the Chicago Fed, at 8:45 a.m.; Lockhart again at 12:30 p.m.; James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, at 1:15 p.m.; and finally the Big Kahuna, Chair Janet Yellen; at 7 p.m.

Friday, we will hear once again from Harker at 9:30 a.m.

With chatter that the Fed will be under pressure from President-elect Donald Trump, these folks are thinking about maximizing their FaceTime before they get the heave-ho, maybe? Although I am not sure whether our Senate will easily toe the Trump line. We shall see.

Anyway, yet again, last week, saw all three major indices finish the week with a string of gains and especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq made a ripping comeback thanks to stellar -- some might say outstanding -- performance among the biotechs and a decent comeback in tech land.

As I had said in my review of the jobs data yesterday, everyone I know, bulls or bears or fence straddlers are desperately wanting the markets to pull back and are using any argument, rationale or concocted story to talk the markets lower. For example, in the last week of trading in 2016, just a week ago, the story started making the rounds pretty much from the get-go (start of the week) that there would be a $50 billion or maybe it was a $50 trillion (LOL) sell program that would hit the markets on the last trading day of the year. Nope, didn't happen.

Maybe, given the fact that our markets are finally green only now, if one considers where they were 17 years ago after the internet bubble was blasted apart, we are not really over-valued from that perspective. In addition, we have so many fantastic hyper- and super-growth companies that comprise the indices that using the tired, old 16x multiple of earnings is just not sensible.

Maybe, just maybe, this really is not your father's Oldsmobile anymore?

This is not the first time I am making that argument, and it's not because I am a perma-bull by any means. In fact, my subscribers and my limited partners would be the first to tell you that we have high levels of cash in the portfolio right now. Just a heads-up, it also will not be the last time I make this point either.

Something to think about this weekend, no?

Hard to believe that I was discussing how tough tech investing was in 2016 in my weekend article from just last Saturday.

C'est a vie.

Next week, we have the usual heavy dose of economic data both here at home and from overseas. Domestically, keep an eye out for jobless claims on Thursday and PPI and retail sales data on Friday. Internationally, the biggies are China CPI on Monday, U.K. manufacturing and industrial production (given proximity to Brexit being triggered) on Wednesday and eurozone industrial production on Thursday.

Next week puts us right into earnings season with Barracuda Networks (CUDA) on Monday and Infosys (INFY) on Friday as the only tech land companies reporting earnings in the week. However, we also have heavyweights like KB Home (KBH) on Wednesday, Delta Air Lines (DAL) on Thursday and last but not the least Bank of America (BAC) , JPMorgan (JPM) , Wells Fargo (WFC)  , an Action Alerts PLUS holding, among others in non-tech land reporting on Friday. 

On the lighter side: 

Stockbroker: What is a million years like to you?
God: Like one second.
Stockbroker: What is a million dollars like to you?
God: Like one penny.
Stockbroker: Can I have a penny?
God: Just a second ...

With that, I wish each and every one of you a safe and joyful weekend with your loved ones. Thanks as always for reading my articles.

Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.

At the time of publication, Somaney had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

TAGS: Transportation | Investing | Financial Services | Basic Materials | Real Estate | Technology | Markets | Economy | Politics

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