iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

TLT (NASDAQ:Financial Services) ETF
neg -0.10
Today's Range: 138.59 - 139.26 | TLT Avg Daily Volume: 7,923,700
Last Update: 07/25/16 - 4:00 PM EDT
Volume: 4,227,505
YTD Performance: 14.91%
Open: $138.94
Previous Close: $138.80
52 Week Range: $118.00 - $143.62
Oustanding Shares: 61,300,000
Market Cap: 8,493,728,000
6-Month Chart
TheStreet Ratings Grade for TLT
Buy Hold Sell
A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D+ D D- E+ E E- F
TheStreet Ratings is the source for accurate ratings that you can rely upon to make sound, informed financial decisions. Click here to find out about our methodology.
Analysts Ratings
Historical Rec Current 1 Mo. Ago 2 Mo. Ago 3 Mo. Ago
Strong Buy
Moderate Buy
Moderate Sell
Strong Sell
Mean Rec. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Latest Dividend: 0.00
Latest Dividend Yield: 0.00%
Dividend Ex-Date: 12/31/69
Price Earnings Ratio: 0.00
Price Earnings Comparisons:
TLT Sector Avg. S&P 500
0.00 0.00 12.90
Price Performance History (%Change):
3 Mo 1 Yr 3 Y
7.67% 16.78% 26.89%
Revenue 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Income 0.00 0.00 0.00
EPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
Earnings for TLT:
Revenue 0.00B
Average Earnings Estimates

Earnings Estimates data is not available for TLT.

Chart Benchmark
Average Frequency Timeframe
Indicator Chart Scale  
Symbol Comparison Bollinger Bands
There's an opportunity to pick up GLD contracts for the ride back down.
Path of least resistance is likely headed higher.

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

The U.S. dollar weakened. The price of crude oil suffered, declining by $2 to $44.82. Agricultural commodities: wheat flat, corn +10, soybeans +18, oats +2. Gold up $9 to $1,344. Lumber +2. Bonds reverse yesterday's weakness. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was up $1.60. The yield on the 10-year note dropped by nearly five basis points to 1.465%. The long bond's yield declined by six basis points to 2.17%. The 2s/10s spread stood at 80 basis points, flattening a bit. As I mentioned, while municipals rose small, closed-end muni bond funds got beaten down . Junk bonds declined. Banks suffered, but only modestly Brokerages were mixed. Insurance was lower on the lesser fixed-income yields. Auto stocks were flat. Energy stocks fell in line with the drop in commodity price. Old tech was slightly higher, though no large price movement. Biotech was disappointing for a second day in a row. Staples were stronger, again led by PepsiCo (PEP) . By contrast, my short Coca-Cola (KO) is dramatically underperforming PEP. Retail was weak, including my short Nordstrom (JWN) . Media lower, but small. Ag equipment was up on the day, as were fertilizers. Potash (POT) was up 4.5%. (T)FANG again was conspicuously weak. Tesla (TSLA) , Facebook (FB) , Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) all were lower in a flat tape. Netflix NFLX, my short Trade of the Week, was up small. In individual stocks, Oaktree Capital Group (OAK) was down a beaner on no news, while DuPont (DD) and Radian Group (RDN) (last week's Trade of the Week) held recent gains well. Twitter (TWTR) was down small on profit taking. Here are some value-added contributions on our site today: Trix are for everyone, from Jim "El Capitan" Cramer  Jeremy LaKosh is in my camp, shorting Fastenal (FAST) . JK sees a $36 to $38 price target. I am lower!  RevShark on alternative approaches to trading -- he follows the "action." Mike Norman on inflation ahead.
Blackrock Municipal 2030 Target Term Trust (BTT) BlackRock Municipal Income Trust II (BLE) Eaton Vance Municipal Income 2028 Term Trust (ETX) Invesco California Value Municipal Income Trust (VCV) Invesco Pennsylvania Value Municipal Income Trust (VPV) Nuveen Premium Income Municipal Fund (NPI) All were down about 1% at last check, while the iShares S&P Nat

My Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

The U.S. dollar weakened a tad. The price of crude oil rose by over $2 to $46.79. Gold fell by $22.70 to $1,333. The commodity broke out at $1,300, so support seems to be there. Agricultural commodities: wheat +6, corn +5, soybean +31 (!), oats flat. Lumber +3. Bonds schmeissed. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) down $2.20. The yield on the 10-year rose by eight basis points to 1.51%. The long bond yield rose nine basis points to 2.23%. The 2s/10s rose to 84 basis points. Municipals were hit small, but closed-end funds got smashed. Several muni bond funds were down by more than 2%. High yield was stronger, despite the decline in the taxable fixed-income market. Banks continued higher. So did brokerages and insurance, led by Goldman Sachs (GS) , up $5, and Lincoln National (LNC) , up $1.85.. Retail was mixed, led by Nike (NKE) to the upside and Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT) to the downside Biotech disappointed. iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was up only $1.50. After the close Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) raised guidance. Autos continued strong down the track. I covered most of my auto shorts in the Brexit period and I am close to re-shorting on the recent strength. Peak autos, I say, again. Ag equipment, which was sold on the rumor of a big crop, was bought on that news today. Staples did little. Old tech was broadly higher, with IBM (IBM) leading to the upside. Media was weak, with Disney (DIS) barely up and Comcast (CMCSA) (recently covered) lower. (T)FANG was disappointing. Telsa (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) were lower. Trade of the Week, short Netflix (NFLX) , was up a beaner. In individual stocks, DD was the world's fair (now up $5 from my incremental buy last week) as was Radian Group (RDN) , up another 4% and now up 18% since last week's inclusion as Trade of the Week. Oaktree Capital Group (OAK) was flat, and so was Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) (disappointing, considering its insurance peers' strength). Starbucks (SBUX) , a short, hurt me (up $1.10). Another short, Apple (AAPL) , was up a large fraction. Here are some fine and value-added contributions from our peeps today: Jim "El Capitan" Cramer really likes Alcoa (AA) , and because of it I am doing more serious work on this name now.  Tim "Not Judy or Phil" Collins takes a non-consensus view on Delta Air Lines (DAL) ; I like this piece.  Tom Graff on what would it take for rates to rise.  Say it ain't so -- Ben "Goldfinger" Cross says gold is looking wobbly. Honest and flexible, Ben, in his approach to the precious commodity.  Tony Owusu takes a look at Amazon's Prime Day.   
Weak Auction: Today's auction features were horrible, the sort of a weak reception one would expect at an interest rate low. Strength in Financial Stocks: The rally in bank stocks, a sector that typically trades inversely with bond prices, has been impressive since last Monday. Municipal Bond Fund Prices Are Collapsing Today: After outperforming since December 2013, closed-end municipal bond funds appear to be finally rolling over. The declines are broad-based, with several funds -- for example, Invesco Pennsylvania Value Municipal Income Trust (VPV) and Eaton Vance Municipal Income 2028 Term Trust (ETX) are down by almost 2% today. A Bullish Sentiment Extreme in Bonds: An unscientific sampling of talking heads in the business media counts 14 bond bulls and zero bond bears in the last four trading days. There is a building and near-unanimous view that rates will not rise for years, which is in marked contrast to months ago when the consensus was for higher rates. In other words, just as the generational low in equities was realized in March 2009 when sentiment was at a bearish extreme, the current investor sentiment in bonds is at a bullish extreme. Current Yields Imply Slower Growth Than Is Likely: As I recently documented when I placed short iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) on my Best Ideas List,  the 10-year U.S. note yield of 1.35% late last week implied a nominal U.S. GDP growth rate of slightly less than 2%. In light of the fact that the implied inflation rate according to Tips is about 1.5%, this means that annual real GDP was implied/expected by the fixed-income market to average below 0.5% growth going forward. This is an unlikely expectation. Breakevens Are Climbing: According to my buddy/friend/pal The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar, the 10-year breakeven is up by 3.5 basis points today to 1.49%. The figure was as low as 1.37% post-Brexit and was under 1.20% in Feburary. The five-year breakeven is up by almost five basis points to 1.47% today. The Brexit low was 1.28% and the February low was 0.95%. Japan Reflation Policy: A large Japanese fiscal stimulus package would be an acknowledgment that the Bank of Japan is running out of existing bonds to buy and if it starts direct monetization of any new fiscal stimulus plan, this has the potential to finally be inflationary for Japan. The Flight to Safety Is At Its Extreme: Concern with the state of the Italian banking system and growth worries in Europe after the Brexit vote has led to another (and possibly final) panic into European bonds. Though Europe's growth prospects are still uncertain, Italy and the eurozone may be close to an agreement. A temporary resolution of the Italian banking crisis could quickly reverse "the flight to safety" and pierce the bubble in European bonds, which have acted as a depressant on U.S. bond yields. I recently shorted TLT and placed TLT short on my Best Ideas List. 

Auction Action Real Money Pro($)

Today's 10-year U.S. Treasury auction was weak, and our short yesterday of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is paying off today.
Participants may be losing their taste for higher prices.

Takeaways and Observations Real Money Pro($)

I added to my long of Radian (RDN) and my shorts of Apple (AAPL) and Foot Locker (FL) . I also increased my bond-market short and went back into SPY puts. Our Trade of the Week this week is to short Netflix (NFLX) at $96.50. Click here and here to see why.  In other market action: The U.S. dollar is weaker. Oil was down nearly another beaner, continuing last week's weakness (which represented crude's worse performance since February). For now, stock bulls are ignoring this. Gold was down $3 to $1,355 at last check. Agricultural commodities were mixed, with wheat -5.50, corn -6, soybeans and -1, but oats +3. Lumber is ending roughly +5.50. Bonds are seeing profit taking. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was down $1.30 at last check. The 10-year Treasury yield is up seven basis points to 1.44% as I write this. The long bond is at 2.15%, up five basis points. The two-year/10-year Treasury spread is unchanged at 78 basis points. Municipals sold off today, but closed-end muni funds held up well. High-yield bonds traded better. The iShares iBoxx U.S. Dollar High Yield C
I shorted more of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) . I went long o

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